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Posted On: 04/07/2012
The Turkish economy is likely to experience a soft landing, as GDP growth slowed to 3.2% during the quarter ending in March, after seeing two years of rapid expansion. There had been concerns that the country was in line for a hard landing, but data from the Turkish Statistics Institute shows this is far from the truth.
The slowdown was expected, and the growth seen during the first quarter of this year is the lowest rate since the final quarter of 2009. This is when the economy first started to recover from the immediate impact of the global financial crisis.
During the six years between 2002 and 2008, the Turkish economy grew by an average of nearly 7% annually, but saw a contraction of 5% during 2009. However it managed to recover quickly, with GDP growth resuming during the final quarter of 2009.
During 2010 the economy expanded by 9%, and by 8.5% last year. But although these levels were extremely good, the current account deficit widened due to the increased demand for energy, and consumer inflation hit double digits. But now the current account deficit is declining, as it fell by more than 25% to $21 billion during the first four months of 2012, compared to nearly $30 billion during the same period last year. Consumer inflation is also declining, and fell to 8.2% in May.
The Turkish government still wants to make Turkey one of the 10 largest economies in the world by 2023. At the moment it is the 16th largest economy, but even at its current rate of growth this may be a little ambitious. At the moment it has an annual GDP of $770 billion, but in comparison Canada, currently the world's 10th largest economy, had a GDP of around $1.73 trillion at the end of last year. At Turkey's current rate of growth its GDP would be just over $1.3 trillion by the beginning of 2023.
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